PSI Journal Club: Bayesian Approaches in Efficacy and Safety

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Date: Thursday 9th November 2023
Time: 11:00-12:00 EST | 16:00-17:00 GMT | 17:00-18:00 CET
Speakers: Kristian Brock and Peter Thall
Chair: Sebastian Weber

Who is this event intended for? Anyone interested in learning more about Bayesian approaches in safety and efficacy.
What is the benefit of attending? People should attend to learn more about the different techniques and application of Bayesian methods for efficacy and safety endpoints.


This event is free to attend for both Members of PSI and Non-Members.
To register, please click here.


Please join us to hear Kristian Brock and Peter Thall present their recent work.

Presenters & Papers: 
1. Kristian Brock, Chen Chen, Shuyen Ho, Greg Fuller, Jared Woolfolk, Cindy McShea, Nils Penard: 'A Bayesian method for safety signal detection in ongoing blinded randomised controlled trials' 

2. Yun Qing, Peter F. Thall, Ying Yuan: 'A Bayesian piecewise exponential phase II design for monitoring a time-to-event endpoint' 

PSI Journal Club is sponsored by Wiley. For each of these published papers there will be a 20 minute presentation by author followed by a 10 minute discussion.

Papers are available to view prior to the meeting (see above) and presentation slides will be available a week before the JC. Journal subscribers can access papers at any time. Audio recordings will be available shortly after the JC to download from the PSI website.

Speaker details



Peter Thall


Peter Thall is a Professor in the Department of Biostatistics at M.D. Anderson Cancer Center. He is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association and the Society for Clinical Trials, and received the Don Owen Award in 2014. Dr. Thall has over 300 publications in the statistical and medical literature, including the books Bayesian Designs for Phase I-II Clinical Trials (2016) and Statistical Remedies for Medical Researchers (2020). His research areas include Bayesian statistics, clinical trial design, precision medicine, and dynamic treatment regimes.

Kristian Brock

Kristian is a methodologist statistician interested in Bayesian and computational methods currently working in AstraZeneca’s Statistical Innovation team. He started his biostatistical career in 2014 at the Cancer Research UK Clinical Trials Unit at the University of Birmingham, focusing mostly on phase I and II trials in cancer. Whilst at Birmingham, he obtained a PhD in clinical trial methodology, publishing work on seamless phase I/II dose-finding, and incorporating a predictive biomarker in a phase II trial with co-primary efficacy and toxicity outcomes. In 2020, he joined UCB as a methodologist. There he built tools to calculate trial probability of success, and published a Bayesian method for monitoring safety signals in ongoing blinded studies using a meta-analytic predictive prior. He is a keen programmer, with a particular interest in R, Stan, Julia, Turing. He has published CRAN packages on dose-finding methods. Outside of work, Kristian enjoys travelling, cycling and sailing.



Sebastian Weber


Sebastian Weber is working as Director in the Department of Advanced Methodology and Data Science at Novartis. He has worked extensivley on enabling the use of historical (control) information in clinical trials through consulting and working on tools to facilitate the application of historical control information from trial design to analysis. Furthermore, Sebastian has experience in designing Oncology phase I dose-escalation trails and is also involved in pediatric drug development programs, where he applies extrapolation concepts. His research interests include the application of pharmacometrics in statistics, model-based drug development and application of Bayesian methods for drug development.


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