PSI Training Course: Hybrid Frequentist / Bayesian Power and Bayesian Power in Planning Clinical Trials

Date: Monday 4th, Wednesday 6th & Friday 8th July 2022
Time: 4th 09:30-12:00, 6th&8th 10:00-12:00 BST
Location: This course will take place online.
Presenter: Andy Grieve (UCB)

Who is this event intended for? Statisticians working on the design of clinical trials.
What is the benefit of attending? Participants will learn how to use Expected Power, Average Power, Predicted Power, Probability of Success and Assurance, and Bayesian Power when planning clinical trials.

Course Cost

Early Bird Members = £250+VAT
Early Bird Non-Members = £375*+VAT

Regular Members = £290+VAT
Regular Non-Members = £415*+VAT
*Please note: Non-Member rates include PSI membership until 31 Dec. 2022.


Due to the popularity of this Training Course, we are delighted to announce that we have added a further 20 places to access the recorded sessions only, for a period of one month. Delegates who purchase these tickets will not be able to participate in the live sessions* with our presenter, but will receive a link to view the recorded sessions later on that same day.

*Due to a lack of access to the live sessions, the recording-only tickets are offered at a reduced price to reflect this:
To secure your access to this Course, please click here to register.


For the most part the planning of clinical trials is based on considerations of the power of a test of a given alternative hypothesis based on ideas introduced by Neyman and Pearson in 1933. As early as 1939, Jeffreys pointed out that if the true value was unknown, so was the power. Jeffreys suggested that to understand the true power of a study the conditional power values should be averaged with respect to their prior probabilities, an unconditional power. This idea was taken up in the 1980’s by Spiegelhalter and colleagues and in the early 2000s by O’Hagan and Stevens who introduced the concept of assurance.  All of this work uses unconditional as opposed to conditional probabilities. 

The course is based on a book with the same title in the Chapman Hall/CRC Biostatistics Series to appear in May 2022. All participants for this course will receive a copy of the book.

Topics covered include:
• Expected Power, Average Power (AP), Predicted Power, Probability of Success and Assurance for a Simple Normal Model with Known Variance
    Bounds on AP and Assurance
    Sample Size for a Given AP/Assurance and Normalized Assurance. 
    Applying Assurance to a Series of Studies
    Assurance for a Clinical Trial with a Single Interim Analysis
    Non-Inferiority Trials

• AP in Non-Normal Settings – Unknown variance, Binary Data, Survival Analysis

• Bayesian Power (BP)
    Bounds on BP 
    Sample Size for a Given BP/Normalized BP  
    Posterior Conditional Success Distributions
    Prior Distributions for Power and sample Size

• Interim Predictions and Links to AP

• AP with Multiple Decision Criteria – Normal Model with Known Variance
    Bounds on AP and Assurance
    Generalized Assurance
    Bayesian Approach to Multiple Decision Criteria.
    Posterior Conditional GO/NOGO/Pause/Distributions

• Surety and Assurance in Estimation
    An Alternative to Power in sample Size Determination
    Unconditional Sample Sizing Based on CI width

Dates & Times

Session 1:- Monday 4th July | 09:30-12:00
Session 2:- Wednesday 6th July | 10:00-12:00
Session 3:- Friday 8th July | 10:00-12:00

PSI is a non-profit organisation run by volunteers. Many of the event organisers and presenters donate their time, while the majority of the event registration cost is spent on administrative support, venue rental / online conferencing, travel costs for the presenter, software licences, and general running of the society. PSI strives to offer high quality courses, but cannot offer a guarantee that the content presented is accurate or fit for your particular needs. Please check if any software is required for this course and ensure you are able to run it prior to registering.

Cancellation and Moderation Terms
For cancellations received up to two weeks prior to a PSI event start-date, the event registration fee will be refunded less 25% administrative charge. After this date, no refunds will be possible. A handling fee of 20 GBP per registration will be charged for every registration modification received two weeks prior or less, including a delegate name change.

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